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Natural Gas Sales. Figure 18.11 is a time plot of quarterly natural gas sales (in billions of BTU) of a certain company, over a period of 4 years (data courtesy of George McCabe). The company's analyst is asked to use a moving average to forecast sales in Winter 2005.

1249_Figure 18.11.jpg

a. Reproduce the time plot with the overlaying MA(4) line.

b. What can we learn about the series from the MA line?

c. Run a moving average forecaster with adequate season length. Are forecasts generated by this method expected to over-forecast, under-forecast, or accurately forecast actual sales? Why?

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