Question: Describe a decomposition strategy that would be useful for assessing the probabilities in Problem I.
Problem I: Consider the following two outcomes:
a. You will get an A in your most difficult course.
b. You will get an A or a B in your easiest course.
Can you assess the probability of these outcomes occurring? What is different about assessing probabilities regarding your own performance as compared to assessing probabilities for outcomes like those in Problem II?
Problem II: Assess your probability that the following outcomes will occur. Use the equivalent lottery method as discussed in the chapter. If possible, use a wheel of fortune with an adjustable win area, or a computer program that simulates such a wheel. What issues did you account for in making each assessment?
a. It will rain tomorrow in New York City.
b. You will have been offered a job before you graduate.
c. The women's track team at your college will win the NCAA championship this year.
d. The price of crude oil will be more than $200 per barrel on January 1, 2030.
e. The Dow Jones industrial average will go up tomorrow.
f. Any other uncertain outcome that interests you.