Role of the Hydrologic Cycle in Vegetation Response to Climate Change: An Analysis Using VEMAP Phase 2 Model Experiments
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This proposal describes research intended to: 1) examine the effects of historical shifts in climate on the interactions of the carbon and water cycles as simulated by the biogeochemical and dynamic global vegetation models of the Vegetation/Ecosystem Modeling and Analysis Project (VEMAP) Phase 2, and 2) investigate how alterations to future climate, as simulated through the end of the 21st century, are predicted to impact those same cycles and interactions. A substantial portion of the hydrologic exchange between the soil and the atmosphere is through vegetation. Conversely, available soil moisture is a key driver in the distribution of vegetation.
Nonetheless, our understanding of the role of vegetation in the hydrologic cycle remains rudimentary. I plan to analyze the interactions of vegetation, hydrology, and climate at a regional scale using a 0.5° latitude/longitude grid across the conterminous U.S. Questions I intend to investigate include: How does the water balance of a region, including surface runoff, change as a result of climate alterations, and to what extent do these changes influence vegetation dynamics or species' migration? What role does the structure and function of vegetation play in mediating those changes, and what are the potential feedbacks between the vegetation and hydrology? Do the interactions between ecological and hydrological processes vary across temperature and moisture gradients? The analyses will require the compilation of an historical database of streamflow and precipitation data and the implementation of novel methods such as the application of river routing algorithms. The analyses will specifically examine issues of spatial (e.g., biomes, watersheds) and temporal (e.g., seasonality, interannual) variability. It is expected that the results of this study will lead to a better understanding of the coupling of vegetation and hydrology, and improved representation of dynamic vegetation in global climate models.