Passenger miles flown on Northeast Airlines, a commuter firm serving the Boston hub, are shown for the past 12 weeks:
Week 1 2 3 4 5 6
Actual Passenger Miles 17 21 19 23 18 16
(in thousands)
Week 7 8 9 10 11 12
Actual Passenger Miles 20 18 22 20 15 22
(in thousands)
a) Assuming an initial forecast for week 1 of 17,000 miles, use exponential smoothing to compute miles for weeks 2 through 12. Use ? = .2.
b) What is the MAD for this model?
c) Compute the RSFE and tracking signals. Are they within acceptable limits?