CASE - Draft-Day Decision Making

How would you make the decision on what player to pick if you had the number 1 NFL draft pick? The 2011 NFL draft posed quite a dilemma for Ron Rivera, the new coach for Carolina

Option 1:
Was quarterback Cam Newton from Auburn worth the top draft spot? Recent number 1 quarterback picks had been big busts. Ryan Leaf and JaMarcus Russell received huge contracts and were even bigger busts. Cam Newton doesn't fit the exact quarterback model. He looks like a bodybuilder and thus seems to have some mobility-but he is a big moving target. He also has a slightly different passing motion. Even with those limitations, Cam was very successful in leading Auburn University to the NCAA National Championship in 2010-2011.

Option 2:
A range of other quarterbacks with their own weaknesses looked very interesting. Blaine Gabbert, Andy Dalton, and Christian Ponder all offered a more classic style of playing quarterback while staying in the pocket. But none of these quarterbacks seemed to have a great combination of quarterback experience, mobility, and a rifle passing arm.

Option 3:
General managers had previously decided that running backs could be picked up lower in the draft due to their need for a strong offensive line to create holes for them to run between. Plus, the likelihood of running backs' getting hurt and having a shortened career is quite high. Mark Ingram from Alabama was rated the highest running back in all of the mock drafts held before the actual draft day.

Option 4:
Wide receivers had been a position that general managers considered more important in the last few years. Quarterbacks cannot be successful unless they have some good targets to throw to. Receivers normally need to be tall and rangy to make it easier for the QB to find them. However, some teams have successfully used smaller players. A.J. Green from Georgia and Julio Jones from Alabama were the top-rated wide receivers.

Option 5:
Football teams often select nonglamour athletes in the first couple of rounds. Offensive and defensive linemen, linebackers, and safeties are often selected according to what the team's biggest need is. Auburn defensive tackle Nick Fairley and Clemson defensive end Da'Quan Bowers were the top two lineman prospects.

Option 6:
Then again, Tom Brady was picked by the New England Patriots in the sixth round of the draft-the 199th pick! So, maybe the top five teams should trade away their pick and receive two or three lower-number picks and look for their own Brady. So, what did the Carolina Panthers decide? How did the decision turn out? For current information on the Carolina Panthers and to find out whether their draft-day strategy appears to be working, go to www.panthers.com/index.html.

Case Questions
1. Ron Riveras draft pick decision was a programmed decision.
a. true
b. false

2. The rational model is appropriate for this decision.
a. true
b. false

3. Ron Rivera needed to set objectives and criteria.
a. true
b. false

4. Creativity and innovation are not crucial in the draft pick.
a. true
b. false

5. The environmental conditions facing the Carolina Panthers were
a. certain
b. risky
c. uncertain

6. The information given in the case discussion lacks the _________ that the Panthers needed to make a decision.
a. timeliness
b. completeness
c. quality
d. relevance

7. _________ would have been appropriate for generating alternatives for the Panthers.
a. brainstorming
b. synectics
c. nominal grouping
d. consensus mapping
e. the Delphi technique
f. none of these

8. Which method would have been most appropriate for Ron Rivera's decision process?
a. a quantitative technique
b. cost-benefit analysis

9. Do you believe that Rivera would have been creative if he had selected Cam Newton?
a. yes
b. no

10. Classify Ron Riveras desire to improve his football team.
a. objective
b. criterion

11. List the pros and cons for each alternative from Ron's perspective, which may be different from yours. State the pros and cons of trading the first pick versus using it.

12. Which alternative would you select if you were in the general manager's shoes?