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Suppose that your car insurance company figures that you have a 97.4% chance of having no collisions next year, a 1.5% chance of having exactly one (at a cost of $32,000), a 0.75% chance of having two (at a total cost of $64,000), a 0.25% chance of having 3 (total cost $96,000), and a 0.10% chance of having more (total cost $138,000).

How much money will they lose on you (on average) next year?

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