Speech

I am a new homeowner and let me tell you- it is always work! I am a professor of mathematics and statistics and that is how I filter everything. I had a hypothesis about German cockroaches that recently infested my Florida house.

I have a hypothesis that I tested. I wondered if every cockroach infesting my house was a German cockroach, or another type of cockroach. I concluded that approximately 70% of the cockroaches that infested my house were German cockroaches. How did I arrive at that conclusion? I consulted the Florida Department of Agriculture and learned that 50% of the cockroaches in Florida are German cockroaches and 70% of the cockroaches found in Pasco County, Florida, (where I live) are German cockroaches as well. I then generalized that nearly all of the cockroaches in Pasco County, Florida, are German Cockroaches. I also counted 10 cockroaches, of the tens of thousands infesting my house, and I noted that 7 of the 10 cockroaches were German cockroaches.

My cockroach infestation is analogous to the Great Rattle Snake Infestation of 2010. Eastern Diamondback Rattle Snakes infested my subdivision that year. There were 10,000 snakes located and killed- and 9,990 of them were Eastern Diamondback Rattle Snakes. Both infestations were similar and nearly every one of the invaders was of one particular type.

Questions:

1. Does Dale provide an informal or formal inductive argument? Why?

2. Does the sample size that Dale discusses logically lead to his conclusions? Why or why not?

3. Are the generalizations that Dale makes accurate based upon the sample size and confidence level? Why or why not?

4. Are the analogous arguments that Dale makes accurate based upon the sample size and confidence level? Why or why not?

5. DEFINE in 3-4 sentences, in your own words, the difference between formal and informal inductive arguments.

6. Explain in 3-4 sentences what the difference between strong and weak inductive arguments is.

7. IDENTIFY two types of inductive arguments with examples for each.

8. IDENTIFY and DESCRIBE the types of population sampling methods that are used in creating inductive arguments.

9. DESCRIBE, in 3 - 4 sentences, how slanted questions can affect the results of a public poll.

Part 2: 

Peter Poll wants to support his political party, the Whigs. This is an extinct political party that was dissolved in 1860. However, Peter feels so strongly about rapidly expanding the economics and infrastructure of the United States that he seeks to revive the party for the upcoming election. Peter decides to conduct a poll on likely voters to see how much support his ideas might have. He calls a local town hall meeting where only registered voters, who are going to vote this fall, may attend. 100 people RSVP. He figures that this sample population would easily be representative of the nation as a whole.

Peter has the event catered for the first hour of the event- the meet and greet. Peter decides this is the best time to poll individuals about his ideas before he speaks to them en masse. The following are the questions that Peter is going to ask each person:

1. Do you think that America should expand the economy and thus create more jobs for people?
2. Do you think that America should repair the roads and bridges that are crumbling because they have not been repaired in years?

Upon the conclusion of polling at the end of the hour, Peter had talked to every one of the 100 people in attendance. Each one of them answered 'yes' to each of the two questions. Peter then concluded that his ideas would be supported by the entire nation and that every voting citizen would vote for the Whig Party.

Questions:

1. Is this a strong or weak inductive argument? Why or why not?
2. Did Peter choose a good sample size? Why or why not?
3. Were the questions that Peter asked each person slanted or unbiased? Why or why not?