Sociology 674 - Elementary Demographic Techniques Test 2-
1) Answer the following four questions about reproduction rates (20 points).
a. Provide a brief interpretation of the Gross Reproduction Rate.
b. Does a GRR of 1.0 correspond to replacement level fertility? Why or why not?
c. Under what circumstances would the Gross Reproduction Rate be equal to the Net Reproduction Rate?
d. Consider two countries with identical Net Reproduction Rates. The mean age of childbearing is 21.5 in Country X and 26.4 in Country Y. Which country's population has a higher growth rate? Why?
2) The following information is for men in the Philippines in 1980. Answer the three questions below.
|
Age group
|
Number of marriages
|
Percent never married
|
|
15-19
|
36,000
|
91
|
|
20-24
|
149,000
|
54
|
|
25-29
|
103,000
|
24
|
|
30-34
|
33,000
|
12
|
|
35-39
|
12,000
|
8
|
|
40-45
|
6,900
|
6
|
|
45-49
|
3,800
|
5
|
|
50-54
|
|
5
|
|
Total
|
343,700
|
|
a. What is the mean age at marriage for Philippine men in 1980?
b. What is the median age at marriage?
c. What is the singulate mean age at marriage?
3) Use this 1985 life table for women in Ireland to answer the five questions below.
1985 life table for women in Ireland
|
x
|
qx
|
dx
|
lx
|
Lx
|
Tx
|
ex
|
|
0
|
0.0079
|
790
|
100,000
|
99,337
|
7,649,387
|
76.49
|
|
1-5
|
0.0017
|
167
|
99,210
|
396,440
|
7,550,050
|
76.10
|
|
5-10
|
0.0008
|
78
|
99,043
|
495,020
|
7,153,610
|
72.23
|
|
10-15
|
0.0009
|
90
|
98,965
|
494,601
|
6,658,590
|
67.28
|
|
15-20
|
0.0013
|
128
|
98,875
|
494,056
|
6,163,989
|
62.34
|
|
20-25
|
0.0018
|
174
|
98,747
|
493,300
|
5,669,933
|
57.42
|
|
25-30
|
0.0014
|
134
|
98,573
|
492,530
|
5,176,633
|
52.52
|
|
30-35
|
0.0032
|
316
|
98,439
|
491,405
|
4,684,103
|
47.58
|
|
35-40
|
0.0042
|
409
|
98,123
|
489,592
|
4,192,698
|
42.73
|
|
40-45
|
0.0076
|
744
|
97,714
|
486,708
|
3,703,106
|
37.90
|
|
45-50
|
0.0117
|
1,131
|
96,970
|
482,020
|
3,216,398
|
33.17
|
|
50-55
|
0.0214
|
2,047
|
95,838
|
474,076
|
2,734,378
|
28.53
|
|
55-60
|
0.0366
|
3,437
|
93,792
|
460,367
|
2,260,302
|
24.10
|
|
60-65
|
0.0629
|
5,684
|
90,355
|
437,564
|
1,799,935
|
19.92
|
|
65-70
|
0.0943
|
7,980
|
84,671
|
403,403
|
1,362,371
|
16.09
|
|
70-75
|
0.1622
|
12,442
|
76,690
|
352,347
|
958,968
|
12.50
|
|
75-80
|
0.2494
|
16,021
|
64,248
|
281,190
|
606,621
|
9.44
|
|
80-85
|
0.4143
|
19,981
|
48,228
|
191,186
|
325,431
|
6.75
|
|
85+
|
1.0000
|
28,247
|
28,247
|
134,245
|
134,245
|
4.75
|
a. What is life expectancy at birth?
b. For a woman who survives until age 55, how many more years can she expect to live?
c. What is the probability of dying between exact age 20 and exact age 50?
d. What is the probability of surviving from exact age 60 to exact age 80?
e. If these death rates (probabilities) were to continue indefinitely and if 100,000 baby girls were born in Ireland every year for the foreseeable future, what would the total female population of Ireland be in 100 years?
f. In the scenario described in (e), how many women would there be between exact ages 20 and 25?
4) Based on the following hypothetical data, answer the four questions below.
|
|
Country 1
|
Country 2
|
|
Age
|
# women at mid-year
|
# births
|
ASFR
(per 1,000)
|
# women at mid-year
|
# births
|
ASFR
(per 1,000)
|
|
15-19
|
2,000
|
100
|
50.00
|
3,200
|
128
|
40.00
|
|
20-24
|
2,200
|
400
|
181.82
|
3,000
|
480
|
160.00
|
|
25-29
|
2,500
|
350
|
140.00
|
3,000
|
345
|
115.00
|
|
30-34
|
2,700
|
200
|
74.07
|
2,900
|
189
|
65.00
|
|
35-39
|
3,000
|
100
|
33.33
|
2,700
|
68
|
25.00
|
|
40-45
|
3,500
|
50
|
14.29
|
2,500
|
38
|
15.00
|
|
45-49
|
3,700
|
25
|
6.76
|
2,300
|
12
|
5.00
|
|
Total
|
19,600
|
1,225
|
|
19,600
|
1,260
|
|
a. What is the General Fertility Rate for each country?
b. Why is the GFR for country 2 greater than that of country 1?
c. What is the Total Fertility Rate for each country?
d. Which country has higher fertility?
5. A mysterious disease affects some children born to an indigenous tribe living in a tropical rain forest. Among children born with this disease, 70% die in the first year of life. Among those who survive the first year of life 60% die before reaching age two. 50% of survivors to age 2 die before age 3 and 50% of survivors to age 3 die before age 4. No child born with this disease has ever reached his/her fifth birthday. Based on this information, answer the following questions:
a. What is the average life expectancy of a child born with this disease?
b. How long can a child with this disease expect to live if he/she survives the first year of life?
c. Assume that the population of this indigenous tribe is stationary. If 100 children are born with this disease every year, how many children are there in the population suffering from this disease in any given year?