Sociology 674 - Elementary Demographic Techniques - Test 1

1) The following information is taken from the 2005 World Population Data Sheet. Population refers to the mid-year (i.e., July 1, 2005) population. Answer the five questions below. Assume exponential growth in all calculations.

a. In what year will the world population reach seven billion? 

b. What is the growth rate for India?

c. How many years will it take for the population of Sub-Saharan Africa to double?

d. Which will happen first? Sub-Saharan Africa will become more populous than India or Sub-Saharan Africa will become more populous than China?

e. What are the assumptions underlying your answers to c and d?  What are the problems with these assumptions?

2) This is a four-part question on the classic western pattern of the demographic transition.

a. First, please draw a diagram of the demographic transition, depicting change over time in the crude birth rate and the crude death rate.

b. The demographic transition is typically thought to have four stages. Please describe these stages and locate them on the diagram above.

c. Discuss the mechanism through which the demographic transition (as you have described it) results in rapid population growth.

d. Briefly summarize the epidemiologic transition in conjunction with your diagram above.  That is, what is the epidemiologic transition and how does it overlap/intersect with the demographic transition?

3) In one sentence, what is a synthetic cohort?  What are the advantages and disadvantages of the wide use of synthetic cohort measures in demography?

4) Briefly explain the rationale for using the mid-year population as the denominator of demographic rates.

5) Based on the hypothetical data from three countries below, answer the following three questions.

a. What are the crude death rates for each country?

b. Using population A as the standard, calculate the direct standardized crude death rates for countries B and C.  Do these standardized rates tell you anything about mortality that was not visible from the crude rates calculated in question 5a?

c. Using population A as the standard, calculate the standardized mortality ratios and the indirect standardized crude death rates for countries B and C.  Do the results of this indirect standardization procedure tell you anything about mortality that was not visible from the crude rates calculated in question 5a?

d. What are the potential problems with using age categories as broad as those used in this hypothetical example?

6) The following table describes the results of a hypothetical study 1,000 healthy seventy-year old men and women.  These people were followed for a period of ten years and periodically tested for symptoms of Alzheimer's disease.  The researchers were interested in assessing the extent to which the cognitive complexity of people's longest job may be related to the likelihood of Alzheimer's onset.  For the sake of simplicity, let's assume that (a) none of the people died over the course of observation, (b) onset of Alzheimer's is easily measured, and (c) there is a meaningful way to distinguish more cognitively demanding jobs from less cognitively demanding jobs. (20 points)

a. What is the incidence rate of Alzheimer's disease for the entire sample?

b. What is the incidence rate of Alzheimer's for each of the two groups?

c. What is the relative risk of developing Alzheimer's for people who worked in more cognitively demanding jobs?