Rich Cole Control Devices, Inc., produces custom built relay devices for auto makers. The most recent project undertaken by Cole requires 14 different activities. Cole's managers would like to determine the total project completion time (in days) and those activities that lie along the critical path. The appropriate data are shown in the following table.
a) What is the probability of being done in 53 days?
b) What date results in a 99% probability of completion?
|
ACTIVITY
|
IMMEDIATE PREDECESSOR(S)
|
OPTIMISTIC TIME
|
MOST LIKELY TIME
|
PESSIMISTIC TIME
|
|
A
|
-
|
4
|
6
|
7
|
|
B
|
-
|
1
|
2
|
3
|
|
C
|
A
|
6
|
6
|
6
|
|
D
|
A
|
5
|
8
|
11
|
|
E
|
B, C
|
1
|
9
|
18
|
|
F
|
D
|
2
|
3
|
6
|
|
G
|
D
|
1
|
7
|
8
|
|
H
|
E, F
|
4
|
4
|
6
|
|
I
|
G, H
|
1
|
6
|
8
|
|
J
|
I
|
2
|
5
|
7
|
|
K
|
I
|
8
|
9
|
11
|
|
L
|
J
|
2
|
4
|
6
|
|
M
|
K
|
1
|
2
|
3
|
|
N
|
L, M
|
6
|
8
|
10
|