Question 1

A company wants to forecast demand using the simple moving average. If the company uses three prior yearly sales values (i.e., year 2013 = 130, year 2014 = 110, and year 2015 = 160), which of the following is the simple moving average forecast for year 2016?

Select one:
A. 100.5
B. 122.5
C. 133.3
D. 135.6
E. 139.3

Question 2

A company wants to forecast demand using the simple moving average. If the company uses four prior yearly sales values (i.e., year 2012= 100, year 2013 = 120, year 2014 = 140, and year 2015 = 210), which of the following is the simple moving average forecast for year 2016?

Select one:
A. 100.5
B. 140.0
C. 142.5
D. 145.5
E. 155.5

Question 3

A company wants to forecast demand using the weighted moving average. If the company uses three prior yearly sales values (i.e., year 2013 = 160, year 2014 = 140, and year 2015 = 170), and we want to weight year 2013 at 30 percent, year 2014 at 30 percent, and year 2015 at 40 percent, which of the following is the weighted moving average forecast for year 2016?

Select one:
A. 170
B. 168
C. 158
D. 152
E. 146

Question 4

Given an actual demand of 59, a previous forecast of 64, and an alpha of .3, what would the forecast for the next period be using simple exponential smoothing?

Select one:
A. 36.9
B. 60.5
C. 62.5
D. 65.5

Question 5

Given an actual demand of 105, a forecasted value of 97, and an alpha of .4, the simple exponential smoothing forecast for the next period would be:

Select one:
A. 80.8
B. 93.8
C. 100.2
D. 101.8
E. 108.2

Question 6

A company wants to generate a forecast for unit demand for year 2016 using exponential smoothing. The actual demand in year 2015 was 120. The forecast demand in year 2015 was 110. Using these data and a smoothing constant alpha of 0.1, which of the following is the resulting year 2016 forecast value?

Select one:
A. 100
B. 110
C. 111
D. 114
E. 120

Question 7

If the intercept value of a linear regression model is 40, the slope value is 40, and the value of X is 40, which of the following is the resulting forecast value using this model?

Select one:
A. 120
B. 1,600
C. 1,640
D. 2,200
E. 64,000

Question 8

A company hires you to develop a linear regression forecasting model. Based on the company's historical sales information, you determine the intercept value of the model to be 1,200. You also find the slope value is minus 50. If, after developing the model, you are given a value of X = 10, which of the following is the resulting forecast value using this model?

Select one:
A. -1,800
B. 700
C. 1,230
D. 1,150
E. 12,000

Question 9

An insurance company has experienced considerable growth in the last several months. The manager of the company monitors the number of monthly policies sold for the past several months. The scatter plot of polices sold is shown below. What is the forecast for period 12?

Select one:
A. 52.89
B. 153.62
C. 43.733
D. 9.1576
E. 12

Question 10

The table shows quarterly grain shipment for a farming cooperative. The regression line (liner equation) for the deseasonalized values is Y = 3.55x + 229. Rounded to two decimal places, what is the forecast for Quarter I, Year 6?

Select one:
A. 303.55
B. 307.10
C. 260.95
D. 245.88

Question 11

The table shows quarterly grain shipment for a farming cooperative. The regression line (liner equation) for the deseasonalized values is Y = 3.55x + 229. Rounded to two decimal places, what is the forecast for Quarter II, Year 6?

Select one:
A. 304.03
B. 307.10
C. 427.31
D. 303.55

Question 12

The table shows quarterly grain shipment for a farming cooperative. The regression line (liner equation) for the deseasonalized values is Y = 3.55x + 229. Rounded to two decimal places, what is the forecast for Quarter III, Year 6?

Select one:
A. 310.65
B. 314.20
C. 260.95
D. 245.88

Question 13

The table shows quarterly grain shipment for a farming cooperative. The regression line (liner equation) for the deseasonalized values is Y = 3.55x + 229. Rounded to two decimal places, what is the forecast for Quarter IV, Year 6?

Select one:
A. 314.20
B. 310.65
C. 260.95
D. 427.51

Question 14

The mean absolute deviation (MAD) is used to:

Select one:
A. estimate the trend line
B. eliminate forecast errors
C. measure forecast accuracy
D. seasonally adjust the forecast
E. all of the above

Question 15

Given forecast errors of - 5, - 10, and +15, the MAD is:

Select one:
A. 0
B. 10
C. 30
D. 175
E. none of these

Question 16

If you were selecting from a variety of forecasting models based on MAD, which of the following MAD values from the same data would reflect the most accurate model?

Select one:
A. 0.2
B. 0.8
C. 1.0
D. 10.0
E. 100.0

Question 17

The table below shows the bread deliveries for a bakery and different forecasting methods. What is the Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) for Simple Moving Average (MA3) forecast?

Select one:
A. 10.7
B. 11.6
C. 12.7
D. 12
E. 12.1

Question 18

The table below shows the bread deliveries for a bakery and different forecasting methods. What is the Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) for Weighted Average forecast?

Select one:
A. 10.4
B. 11.6
C. 12.7
D. 12
E. 12.1

Question 19

The table below shows the bread deliveries for a bakery and different forecasting methods. What is the Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) for Exponential Smoothing forecast?

Select one:
A. 13.1
B. 11.6
C. 12.7
D. 12
E. 13.7

Question 20

Below is the Individual and Moving Range (ImR or XmR) control chart for monthly sales for a company. Based on the examination of the sales process, what type of variation is present?

Select one:
A. Only common (noise or routine) variation present
B. Only Special (signal, exceptional) variation present
C. A and B
D. No variation is present

Question 21

Below is the Individual and Moving Range (ImR or XmR) control chart for monthly sales for a company. Based on the examination of the sales process, what is the state of the process

Select one:
A. Stable and predictable
B. Stable and unpredictable
C. Unstable and predictable
D. Unstable and unpredictable

Question 22

Below is the Individual and Moving Range (ImR or XmR) control chart for monthly sales for a company. Based on the examination of the sales process the manager is asking you to explain the reduction in sales (change in variation) in months 23 and 24. What type of mistake is the manager committing?

Select one:
A. Mistake 1: treating common cause (noise) as special cause (signal)
B. Mistake 2: treating special cause (signal) as common cause (noise)
C. Both Mistakes 1 and 2
D. Neither Mistakes

Question 23

Below is the Individual and Moving Range (ImR or XmR) control chart for monthly sales for a company. Based on the examination of the sales process, you can forecast the sales in the near future as:

Select one:
A. $90.13
B. $69.31
C. $110.94
D. A value between $69.31 and $110.94
E. $7.83

Question 24

Below is the Individual and Moving Range (ImR or XmR) control chart for monthly sales for a company. Based on the examination of the sales process, a special cause (signal) can be detected by a value:

Select one:
A. Above $110.94
B. Below $69.31
C. Above $90.13
D. Below $90.13
E. A and B

Question 25

In the description of control charts in this course, the control limits are set at:
Select one:
A. Three sigma above the average
B. Three sigma below the average
C. Both A and B
D. Limits can be placed anywhere
E. Limits can be placed at average