Question 1 -

You are asked to advise your senior management in choosing the best Project Manager (PM) for an upcoming project. Your senior management have established the following criteria for the selection:

1. Past Success in the Projects;

2. Degree in Building Construction; and

3. Experience in the Profession

There are three possible choices for the position of PM which are Kandy, Griffin and Omer.

Under Criterion 1 (Past success in the projects): The managers have decided that Kandy is strongly preferred to Griffin and very strongly preferred to Omer. In turn, Griffin is strongly preferred to Omer.

Under Criterion 2 (Degree in Building Construction): The managers have determined that Griffin is strongly preferably to Kandy and equally preferably to Omer. Also, Omer is strongly preferable to Kandy.

Under Criterion 3 (Experience in the profession): The Managers consider Griffin to be equally preferably to Omer. Both Griffin and Omer are extremely preferable to Kandy.

Senior management has decided the relative importance of the three selection criteria is as follows: Criterion 1 is strongly preferable to Criterion 3 and very strongly preferable to Criterion 2. Criterion 2 is extremely preferable to Criterion 3.

You are asked to use the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) technique in order to facilitate the selection process. Based on the AHP method what would be your final rankings? Show all steps and relevant calculations.

Question 2 -

Trucks arrive at a batching plant from distribution points in an area serviced by a ready-mixed concrete depot. The arrival time intervals of the trucks is observed and yields the following results:

The time taken to load the trucks, which are either 5 yd³ or l0 yd³ capacity, are fairly constant at 3 and 5 minutes respectively, and both types are equally represented at the depot. (In other words, half trucks at the depot have 5 yd3 capacity and remaining half have 10 yd³ capacity).

If the batching plant loads each of the trucks immediately it arrives, in the order that it arrives, calculate the total time likely that the mixer and trucks will be waiting in any period of 60 minutes selected at random.

A template is shown below for your use. Show random numbers selected for the simulation and all related calculations.

Question 3 -

Briefly answer the following questions:

A. What are the basic flaws of a traditional cost estimate? How a Risk-based Estimate addresses short-comings of a traditional estimate?

B. What are the fundamental steps in a risk-based estimate preparation?