Q1. Jo Thomkins must decide whether or not to proceed with a particular investment project. If the project succeeds, Jo will gain $15 million. If the project fails, she will lose $3 million. Jo estimates that there is a 20% chance that the project will succeed and an 80% chance that it will fail.

A consultant could tell Jo with certainty if the project will succeed or fail, but only for a fee. What is the most that Jo should be willing to pay the consultant for the information? Explain. Assume that Jo has correctly estimated the probabilities of the project's likely success and failure.

Q2. Acme Incorporated is considering launching a new product. Launching the product will require an investment of $500 million (including marketing expenses and the costs of new facilities). The launch is risky because demand could either turn out to be low or high. There is a 50% chance that demand will turn out to be high and a 50% chance that demand will turn out to be low. If it launches the product, Acme's payoffs will be $100 million if demand turns out to be high and -$50 million if demand turns out to be low. Of course, if Acme does not launch the product, its payoff will be zero.

a. Draw a decision tree showing the decisions that Acme can make and the payoffs from following those decisions.

b. If Acme wants to maximize expected profit, what action should it take and what is the expected payoff?