Project -

The objective of this year's term project is to perform a Decision Analysis on a green energy project. Your team will perform a Decision Analysis to determine if the green energy project in question 1) should expand, or 2) continue operating with the existing capacity, or be 3) scrapped in favor of more traditional methods.  The team should take into consideration any Government incentive in place that promotes the energy sources they are employing.  The analysis should also look at the possibility of those incentives being revoked in the event that there is a shift in public policy.  The analysis should be performed from a financial perspective as you would for any business entity. Additionally, your team's analysis should also embrace the larger issue of reducing carbon emissions. With this in mind, your decision analysis needs to use total carbon emission reduction as a metric, as well as financial considerations.  In other words, are your green energy methods reducing total carbon output by displacing carbon producing alternatives? Therefore, new capacity has to be weighed against displacement of trees which also have their own carbon converting capability.

Once your analysis is complete, each team will provide a 15 minute video presentation of their findings.  These presentations should be directed at public policy makers to help them determine on a case by case basis whether or not to expand your facility's green energy capability, to keep the current operating capacity in place but not expand, or to scrap the current green capability in favor of more traditional methods.   Key components in the presentation should include:

Title chart

1) Overview of the proposal (1 Chart)

a. Objectives

b. Decision/recommendation on how to proceed

2) Key elements of the decision (1 Chart)

a. Alternatives considered

b. Risks (Uncertainties) identified

c. Consequences

3) Decision Analysis (2 - 3 Charts, remember you only have 15 minutes)

(Your analysis should go beyond what's presented.  Analysis can be organized in an Appendix at the back of the presentation, and footnoted appropriately for later evaluation by the Public Policy team.  However, the analysis that best supports your decision needs to be the information that's included in the presentation.)

4) Summary (1 Chart) Restate recommendation on how to proceed citing pertinent supporting analysis

Presentation Deliverables- All groups will submit a video presentation to public policy makers.  All presentation and analysis materials will be submitted in conjunction with the video. 

EXTRA CREDIT OPPORTUNITIES:

Use Decision Tools NeuralTools in your analysis.

Use Decision Tools Evolver in your analysis.

Evaluation reports - Submit a report evaluating all of the presentations presented in class.  In this exercise, you will take the position of being a consultant acting on behalf of the person responsible for setting Public Policy.  In the report, you will provide a relative ranking of all projects presenting based on how well they performed decision analysis in your opinion.  Your job is to explain why you selected the top performers, and explain the analysis that they performed to the Public Policy makers.  I fully expect that you place your group at the top of the list.  You will explain the analysis and tools used from the best group to the Public Policy makers and indicate why their analysis was the most solid and well performed. You also need to point out any good points, positions, alternatives, and/or analysis presented by the groups you selected for the second and third ranking. This is to be no more than 10 pages, single spaced, including any illustrations.  Any citations or referenced information you would like to cite should be included in footnotes.  Guidelines for the report format are as follows:

1) Restatement of the value proposition

2) Relative ranking of all teams from best to least favorite.

3) In depth explanation of the number one choice:

a) Describe the tools used so that an educated person who has not been exposed to decision analysis could understand.

b) What was unique about their analysis?

4) Good points to consider from the other groups, primarily the second and third place contenders.

5) Questions that lower rated groups left unanswered.

a) Opportunities for additional analysis that you might have asked to be performed.

b) Follow-up questions that were not addressed during the presentations due to time constraints.

c) Additional risks that might be addressed given more time.

Attachment:- Solar Case Studies.rar