Problem:

The Multifacted Garden Store uses two forecasting techniques to predict annual national sales of their lawnmowers at their various franchises. The actual sales and the corresponding forecasts for techniques 1 & 2 for the period spring 2012 to spring 2013 are given below:

Spring 12 Summer 12 Fall 12 Winter 12 Spring 13

Actual 17178 11452 6106 1527 18183

FC 1 16948 11250 6308 1604 18007

FC 2 17453 12102 6006 1445 18504

Required:

Question 1) Calculate the MAD, the MAPE, the MSE and the tracking signal for Forecast 1

Question 2) Calculate the MAD, the MAPE, the MSE and the tracking signal for Forecast 2

Question 3) Compare results obtained in parts a and b

Question 4) The company is interested in developing forecasts for their lawnmower sales during the summer of 2011. which of the two forecasting techniques would you recommend that they use, and why?

Question 5) Actual sales figures for the previous three years are given below

Spring Summer Fall Winter Total

2010 15125 9650 4195 1230 30200

2011 16095 10730 5300 1327 33452

2012 17178 11452 6106 1527 36263

Required:

Question 1) Can you suggest an appropriate technique that might yield reasonable forecasts for this time series? Use the method you selected to forecast sales for spring 2013.

Provide correct solution of the given problem with step by step calculations.