Problem  (Algorithmic)

Consider the following time series data.

Using the naïve method (most recent value) as the forecast for the next week, compute the following measures of forecast accuracy:

Mean absolute error (MAE)

Mean squared error (MSE)

Mean absolute percentage error (MAPE)

Round your answers to two decimal places.

MAE =

MSE =

MAPE =

Using the average of all the historical data as a forecast for the next period, compute the same three values. Round your answers to two decimal places.

MAE =

MSE =

MAPE =

Which method appears to provide the more accurate forecasts for the historical data?

Average of all the historical data

Explain.

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