Problem 1: Line Balancing

First shift employees at Toyota work from 6am to 2pm Monday through Friday.  Everyone on the assembly line is allowed a 30 minute lunch and two 20 minute breaks. Other cross-trained associates cover lunches and breaks for the associates on the assembly line so the line doesn't stop. After three weeks at Toyota, you record the processes of the assembly line are laid out in the following manner:

Task                       Predecessor                       Average Time (sec)

A                             none                                     100

B                             none                                     150

C                             A                                             93

D                             B                                             120

E                              B                                             86

F                              C                                             84

G                             D, E                                        65

H                             F, G                                        15

The Plant Manager needs first shift to achieve an output of 100 units per shift.

a) Compute the Takt time for the line (2 points).

b) What is the theoretical minimum number of workstations? (2 points)

c) Draw the precedence diagram (2 points).

d)   Assign tasks to work stations and you must use the largest eligible task heuristic rule to break any ties.  Show which tasks are assigned to each workstation (3 points).

e) Compute the efficiency and percent idle time for the system (2 points).

f)  What is the maximum output that could be achieved by a single assembly line in 8 hours? (2 points)

Problem 2: Forecasting

                                Jun         Jul           Aug        Sept       Oct         Nov        Dec

Units Sold            255         305         298         268         321         359         319

Given these sales figures over the last 7 months, your boss needs you to create a forecast model that can be used to forecast sales in the future.  Use three different forecasting methods (last period, 2 period moving average and 3 period moving average) to determine which forecasting method would be best to forecastfuture sales.  For your measure of "best", recommend the company use the method with the lowest mean absolute deviation (MAD).

a) Calculatethe MAD for each of the 3 forecasts

b) After you have selected the best forecasting method, what would you tell your boss is the forecasted sales for January?

Problem 3: Forecast Accuracy

Your company released a new product in Decemberlast year.  Prior to December, the Marketing Department provided their forecasted sales.  The product has been on the market for 5 weeks now and the table below shows the actual sales and Marketing's forecast of units sold.

a) Calculate the MFE for theforecast

b) Calculate the MAPE for theforecast