Possible, Probable, & Plausible: How People make Descisions

Trend forecasters, sometimes called "futurists", use three "P's": Possible, Probable, and Plausible. Possible includes the "outliers" on the classic bell curve. Probable narrows the spectrum to the mean, median, and mode at the top of the bell curve. Plausible narrows the probable to those activities or options that humans will actually select for action. The three "P's" illuminate how we make decisions. How, in fact, do people make decisions? Do they use data-driven decision making? Or do they use political decision making? Or do they make decisions based on personalities? Cite examples of how you think we, people make decisions. Sadly, I have worked as a lobbyist. This has caused me to recognize the power of politics, what's in it for me? In decisions, not rational what is good for the organization.