One thing that writers and researchers do at the end of articles and books is speculate on the future. The whole point of research is to learn, to create knowledge, and to show a "path forward." Most research involves:

• Asking and answering questions (e.g., Why did financial institutions nearly collapse the world economy in 2008? Can the same thing happen again?)

• Looking for connections that help explain what we observe (e.g., How was the 2008 financial crisis similar to the Great Depression? How was it different? How do we account for those points of comparison?)

• Studying cases to arrive at a new hypothesis for what went wrong and to develop the key terms that are key to the argument we are making (e.g., credit default swaps, derivatives, subprime mortgage bubble, failures in financial regulation and deregulation).

• Considering the consequences of a course of action or a set of events-attempting to predict the future, given our decisions about "the path forward." (e.g., Under what conditions could it happen again? What has to change to avoid another crisis?)

Just as we can usually discover a writer's project by looking at the text's foreword, its introduction, or its first section or chapter, we can see this move to consider a "path forward" in the concluding section of the text.

For this paper, make sure you have read the final chapter of Hayes's book. Take a set of good notes that will help you understand his conclusion. He had made an argument about meritocracy and the failure of elites in the first decade of the 21st century. Then he has to explain: So what? Why does this argument matter to anyone? What is at stake?

Your Task

Research: For Paper Two, we will all work on the same case., one that will allow us to study the past and think into the future. Our subject is Hurricane Katrina, the deadliest natural disaster in the history of the U.S. Learn the basic facts of what happened, when it happened, where it happened, and what the observable consequences of the event were.

Then, investigate the debates among experts about causes, effects, and "the path forward." Pay attention to the how differing perspectives among experts lead to different explanations, interpretations, and potential solutions.

You will need to know not just about the hurricane itself, but about the history of hurricanes along the Gulf coast, and particularly the concerns about New Orleans. You will need to learn about the path of the storm, when and where it hit, and the various aspects of the situation that made it the costliest natural disaster in U.S. history.

Then you will need to look at what different experts have said about the storm-the politicians; Hurricane experts like Ivor von Heerden; the people from various federal agencies (FEMA, the National Hurricane Center; historians; scientists; the experts who compiled the Coastal 2050 study; the Congressional investigations into the disaster; psychologists who are experts in trauma, to name a few.

Once you have done your basic research, choose a focal point for your deeper research (development of wetlands, storms fueled by global climate change, the problem of evacuating the poor, "disaster capitalism," why FEMA failed, etc. Pay particular attention to how experts talk about "the path forward"-what they recommend, what they fear, what they argue over, and why. As you work, develop a thick Annotated Bibliography that will support your writing.

Writing: Write a paper in which you choose some aspect of the Hurricane Katrina disaster to investigate. Trace the historical roots of the problem, explain the factors that come together to create the situation you are studying, and go on to talk about how the situation can be prevented and whether steps have been made over the past decade to fix the problem.

For example, the city of New Orleans flooded because the levees holding back water failed. Why did that happen?

What solutions have been proposed to prevent it from happening again? And what progress if any has been made since 2005? What, in your view accounts for that progress, or the lack of it? Is it possible to predict the future, based on what you learn in your research? (In the case of the levees, that answer is "yes.")

Your paper should be 5-7 pages, double spaced, in MLA format. Include in-text citations and an Annotated Bibliography.

Work Cited

Hayes, Chris. The Twilight of the Elites. Crown, 2012.