Let's start with a National Weather Service (NWS) text forecast for Oklahoma City issued on Monday morning, March 21:
Monday (March 21): Mostly cloudy tonight, with a low around 63. South wind between 18 and 20 mph, with gusts as high as 29 mph.
Tuesday (March 22): A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after 1 p.m. Partly sunny, with a high near 82. Windy, with a south wind between 21 and 28 mph, with gusts as high as 39 mph.
Tuesday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 50. South wind 19 to 22 mph becoming west 9 to 12 mph. Winds could gust as high as 30 mph.
Wednesday (March 23): Sunny, with a high near 75. Northwest wind between 10 and 15 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph.
Wednesday Night: Clear, with a low around 43. North to northwest wind between 5 and 9 mph.
1. What clues in this forecast suggest that a cold front will pass Oklahoma City?
2. When does the forecaster think that this is going to happen?
3. Using figure 11/2, determine between what dates and times you see the most significant change in direction of the forecasted surface low initially located in south-central Colorado.
4. What does the changing circle size suggest about the inherent nature of weather forecasts?