INSTRUCTIONS

When preparing for your discussion post on this case, it is recommended that you read it several times.

Read it the first time to familiarize yourself with the case.

On the second reading, consider your assigned role in the situation, and let that guide your perspective. Look deeper at the details: facts, problems, organizational goals, objectives, policies, strategies.

Next, consider the concepts, theories, tools, and research you need to use to address the issues presented.

Then, complete any research, analysis, calculations, or graphing to support your decisions and make recommendations.

BACKGROUND INFORMATION

In this module, you covered the concepts of forecasting and scheduling to prioritize demand. Without forecasting, most organizations, even small businesses, could quickly find themselves with significant supply and demand mismatches, resulting in excess inventory or the inability to meet customer demand.

In the discussion scenario, you are the owner of A Panda in the Kitchen, a bamboo kitchenware company. You currently produce cutting boards, small and large bowls, and drying racks. You have been in business for the last year and have sales data for each item.

DISCUSSION PROMPT

Imagine your brilliant daughter has provided you with forecasting data for various models. It is now up to you to select a model that you will use to forecast sales for the next year, so that you can purchase raw materials for your products (you buy in an annual batch to save shipping costs).

This discussion addresses the following Module Outcome:

Predict the best forecasting model for a given business process and associated historical data, using nave forecasts, moving averages, exponential smoothing, and trends in time series data. (CO1, CO3, CO4, CO5)

TASKS

1. Answer the following: a.Which forecasting model will you use? Justify your choice.

b. What are the possible sources of error in your selected model? (i.e. - last year was a bull market; therefore, people had less disposable income.).

c. Does your selected model meet the "good forecast" criteria from Chapter 15 of Operations Management? Explain your answer.

2. When responding to at least two classmates, consider their selection of a forecasting model. a.What uncertainty exists in the model that your peer chose?

b. How can they reduce or eliminate that uncertainty?

It is recommended that you write your post in a document first. Check your work and correct any spelling or grammatical errors. When you are ready to make your initial post, click "Reply." Then copy/paste the text into the message field, and click "Post Reply."

To respond to a peer, click "Reply" beneath her or his post and continue as with an initial post.

APA style and REFERENCES

Attachment:- table.xlsx