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Forecasts and actual sales of MP3 players at Just Say Music are as follows:

Month               Forecast                Actual Sales

March                   150                             170

April                     220                             229

May                       205                             192

June                      256                             241

July                        250                             238

August                  260                             210

September          270                             225

October              280                             179

Plot the data and provide insights about the time series. (Use Microsoft Excel and attach the time series graph)

What is the forecast for November, using a two-period moving average?

What is the forecast for November, using a three-period moving average?

Compute mean square error (MSE) for the two- and three-period moving average models and compare your results.

Find the single exponential smoothing model by evaluating the MSE for Alpha 0.5. How does this model compare with the best moving average model found in 2d?

Operation Management, Management Studies

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