Forecastingfor problems 1-3 consider the following, Ask an Expert

Management Studies

Forecasting:

For Problems 1-3 consider the following data:

Period	Demand
10	248
11	430
12	324
13	263
14	555

1) Develop a 3 period moving average forecast for periods 13-15

2) Develop two period weighted moving average model for periods 12-15. Use weights of 0.7 and 0.3, with the most recent observation weighted the highest

3) Develop an exponential smoothing forecast (SD=0.25) for Periods 11-15. Assume the forecast for period 10 was 294

4) Consider the forecasts shown below. Calculate MAD and MFE using the data for months January through June. Does the model over or under forecast? Comment on the importance of this.

Month	Actual Demand	Forecast	Forecast Error	Absolute Forecast Error
Jan	1040	1055	-15	15
Feb	990	1052	-62	62
Mar	980	900	80	80
Apr	1060	1025	35	35
May	1080	1100	-20	20
Jun	1000	1050	-50	50
Totals

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