Final Project Guidelines -
In 2016, Tesla announced the release of a lower-priced all electric vehicle - the Tesla Series 3. Pre-orders quickly surpassed expectations, climbing over 500,000. Since then, several other companies have also made a huge commitment to electric vehicles. GM and others announced ambition plans in October; GM promises 20 new all electric models by 2023. The ambition plans of U.S. car manufacturers is partially due to much tighter vehicle efficiency rules in the U.S. , but also due to goals set by the Chinese and other governments to rapidly phase out gasoline-powered vehicles. Norway has pledged to ban gasoline-powered cars by 2025; France has set 2040 as the target.
Whether or not these targets are feasible is uncertain. Since its announcement, Tesla has struggled to meet production targets. This week, Tesla announced that they produced just 9,800 Tesla 3's in the first quarter, well below their target of 20,000 per month. (Tesla stock is down 30% from its July peak).
The ambitious goals set by car companies and countries suggests a sharply increased market share for electric vehicles in coming years. The goal of this project is to develop an Excel model that allows you to answer the following questions:
- What is the ultimate potential for electric vehicles in terms of market share?
- To what extent could the wide scale adoption of electric vehicles reduce U.S. oil demand and projected greenhouse gas emissions? (For example, as part of the 2016 Paris Climate Agreement, the U.S. pledged to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases 26 - 28% from 2005 levels by 2025.
There is no one right way to go about this project. You already have the basic tools to do this analysis. We will continue learning Excel skills in upcoming classes that will be useful for this project, including scenario development. Here is a list of issues to consider in constructing your model:
- Using principles of market diffusion, what percent of market share could electric vehicles capture in the next 20-50 years?
- How does the fuel efficiency of the existing fleet change as EVs are added? (This can get very complicated; start simple and add detail if you think it will add value to your model).
- What are the emissions from vehicles with internal combustion engines (ICE)? What are the typical emissions from EVs? Is there any uncertainty about this?
Two excellent sources of data for this project include:
- Transportation Energy Data Book, Oak Ridge National Laboratory.
- The Energy Information Administration, U.S. Department of Energy.
You may work individually or in groups of two.
Attachment:- Assignment File.rar