Discussion questions - Bumpass (1990)

1. Let's think for a minute about the gap between theory and data that often plagues demographic studies of family behavior (or social science research, general). What are some of the problems that we face in trying to evaluate alternative explanations for a given outcome using limited data. Bumpass gives example of educational attainment and women's marriage timing.

2. How should we go about trying to understand/explain "across the board" changes in family behavior, e.g., increasing divorce in U.S., later marriage in Japan? By "across the board," I mean change that is similar across social and demographic characteristics.

3. What are some of the major consequences of divorce that demographers/sociologists are interested in trying to understand?

4. What are some of the major implications of the increasing prevalence of cohabitation that demographers/sociologists are interested in trying to understand?

5. Why does the emergence of cohabitation as a common event in people's lives present a difficult challenge in demographic research?

6. A remedial clarification question. What exactly is meant by the life table estimates such as "roughly 60% of marriages are projected to end in divorce" or "70% of black women will have a child while unmarried if recent levels persist" (p.488)? This same question could be asked in regard to the Popenoe paper.

7. Bumpass discusses (either directly or indirectly) the importance of diffusion, feedback mechanisms, and reciprocal causality in studies of family behavior. These are all issues we will return to repeatedly. Based on Bumpass' discussion, how do all of these relate to explanations of increasing divorce? Also, how are these important for understanding how increasing divorce may influence other demographic behaviors?

Popenoe and responses (1993)

1. What exactly does Popenoe mean when he says that the American family is in "decline"? Do you find this to be a reasonable definition of "family decline?"

2. Why does he think that family "decline" in recent decades is so much more alarming than family decline in the past?

3. Why does his definition of family perhaps overstate the extent of its "decline?"

4. What are some of the potential implications of the changes he describes for family demographers?

5. On what grounds do Stacey and Cowan criticize Popenoe's analysis? Do you find these critiques convincing? How does Popenoe respond? How would you respond if you were in his place?

6. What does Popenoe see as some of the major forces (political, economic, social/cultural) contributing to "family decline?"

7. How does Popenoe define "familism? Where does familism fit into his thesis of family decline?

8. Like Bumpass, Popenoe stresses the importance of feedback mechanisms (e.g., as divorce increases, it becomes more acceptable leading to further increases). This makes a lot of sense, but is extremely difficult to model - what are some possible ways that we might seek to control for diffusion?

9. Popenoe is really saying more or less the same thing that Bumpass says in his PAA address. Why do you think Popenoe takes so much heat for his paper while Bumpass doesn't take any for saying essentially the same thing?

Oppenheimer (1994)

1. Oppenheimer criticizes what she refers to as the "specialization and trading model of marriage" or "the reduced gains to marriage" explanation and proposes an alternative model. What are the key components or key theoretical building blocks of these two alternative models?

2. On what grounds does Oppenheimer criticize the "specialization and trading model?"

3. How has the specialization and trading model typically been empirically evaluated? What kind of support has it received? How does support depend on the nature of the data used? What do you think of the way in which women's "economic independence" has typically been operationalized?

4. These two alternative models present a common dilemma in family research - both predict the same general relationship, i.e., a negative relationship between indicators of women's economic resources and marriage. How can the two alternative models be evaluated when they predict the same outcome? (Note that one of the non-required readings - Oppenheimer and Lew (1995) - may be helpful here).

5. Oppenheimer (1994) also presents several plausible explanations for empirical evidence that does not support either of the above explanations. What are some of the possible explanations for evidence indicating that women's economic status may actually be positively associated with marriage?

6. What do these models say about the marriage behavior of men? Can studies of male marriage behavior shed any light on different theoretical explanations for changes in women's marriage behavior?

7. What do these two alternative models of marriage timing say about other family behaviors (e.g., cohabitation, divorce, fertility)? That is, how do these other dimensions of family change fit into explanations of change in marriage timing? Or alternatively, how do these two models of marriage timing, proving insights helpful in understanding change in other family processes?

8. Where do changes in attitudes and/or expectations fit into these models?

9. What is the role of welfare in the specialization and trading model of marriage?

10. Why is the issue of later marriage one of policy concern, i.e., why do people care about trends in marriage timing?

11. Why has the specialization and trading model of marriage provided an appealing explanation to such diverse groups as "family values" politicians and feminists?

12. What evidence does Oppenheimer (1994) offer in her critique of the specialization and trading model?

Casper and Bianchi -

1. The life course approach is a tremendously important tool in family demography/sociology. How would you summarize the key components of the life course approach?

2. What are some of the key differences between the life course approach to the family and the family cycle approach?

3. Based on your reading, what distinguishes the "economics of the family" (i.e., neoclassical economic approach to studying family behavior) from that of say, demography or sociology?

4. What are the central elements of the economic theory of marriage and divorce?

5. What are some of the key racial differences in family characteristics?

6: How might trends in cohabitation help us to understand trends in marriage, childbearing, women's labor force participation, and divorce? That is, how are these trends interrelated?