Discussion: Figuring Probability

For this media piece, view the 12 minutes video and then complete the activity. Also show your workings

http://mym.cdn.laureate-media.com/2dett4d/Walden/MGMT/8045/03/mm/probability_problems/index.html

Games of chance, such as cards and dice, allow you to intuitively learn about and discuss probability, or the chance that something will occur. Some people develop an intuition about the likelihood that events will occur, which gives them an advantage over those who do not develop that intuition. However, that intuition can actually be flawed and can run contrary to probability theory. Gaining an understanding of the principles of probability theory allows you to identify flawed intuition.

To prepare for this week's Discussion, complete the assigned reading and then the Exam. This Discussion is an opportunity to discuss with your colleagues your experience completing the probability problems from the Exam When learning any new subject, it is important to not only determine what you know but also what you do notknow. This Discussion is meant for you and your colleagues to provide help, feedback, and support for each other.

Post: Share questions you have or challenges you experienced when completing the problems in the Exam. Explain how the strategies you used to solve the problems in the Assignment can be applied to decision making; provide an example. Also make sure you add additional resources

Resources - Hastie, R., & Dawes, R. M. (2010). Rational choice in an uncertain world (2nd ed.). Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage.

"Appendix: Basic Principles of Probability Theory" (pp. 337-359)