Consider the following time series data:
|
Week
|
1
|
2
|
3
|
4
|
5
|
6
|
|
Value
|
18
|
13
|
16
|
11
|
17
|
14
|
a. Construct a time series plot. What type of pattern exists in the data?
b. Develop a three-week moving average for this time series. Compute MSE and a fore- cast for week 7.
c. Use a = 0.2 to compute the exponential smoothing values for the time series. Com- pute MSE and a forecast for week 7.
d. Compare the three-week moving average forecast with the exponential smoothing forecast using a = 0.2. Which appears to provide the better forecast based on MSE? Explain.
e. Use Excel Solver or LINGO to find the value of a that minimizes MSE. (Hint: Mini- mize the sum of squared error.)