Q. manager of Carpet City outlet needs to make an accurate forecast of demand for Soft Shag carpet (its biggest seller). If manager does not order enough carpet from carpet mill, customers will buy their carpet from one of Carpet City's many competitors. Manager has collected subsequent demand data for past 8 months:
Demand for Soft Shag
Month Carpet (1,000 yd.)
1 8
2 12
3 7
4 9
5 15
6 11
7 10
8 12
a. Compute a 3-month moving average forecast for months 4 through 9.
b. Compute a weighted 3-month moving average forecast for months 4 through 9. Assign weights of .55, .33 also .12 to months in sequence, starting with most recent month.
c. Compare two forecasts by using MAD. Which forecast appears to be more accurate?