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Betsy's Blue Bonnet Bakery
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a =
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0.3
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g =
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0.5
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b =
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0.8
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Actual
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Trend
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Slope
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Seasonal
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Forecast
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Error
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Quarter
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t
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Sales, Yt
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Tt
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bt
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St
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Ft
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2003 W
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1
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36,500
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1988 S
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2
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43,750
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36,500.00
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7,250.00
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1.20
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1988 S
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3
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59,920
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48,601.00
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9,675.50
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1.23
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1988 F
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4
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87,440
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67,025.55
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14,050.03
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1.30
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2004 W
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5
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102,240
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87,424.90
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17,224.69
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1.17
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1988 S
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6
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123,420
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104,144.98
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16,972.38
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1.19
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125,436.15
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(2,016.15)
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1988 S
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7
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139,610
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118,753.37
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15,790.39
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1.19
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149,325.16
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(9,715.16)
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1988 F
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8
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135,380
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125,312.56
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11,174.79
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1.13
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175,522.72
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(40,142.72)
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2005 W
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9
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129,470
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128,753.89
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7,308.06
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1.04
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159,616.61
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(30,146.61)
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1988 S
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10
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137,570
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129,989.43
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4,271.80
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1.08
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161,612.88
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(24,042.88)
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1988 S
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11
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156,630
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133,566.44
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3,924.41
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1.18
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159,379.23
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(2,749.23)
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1988 F
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12
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150,980
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136,498.26
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3,428.11
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1.11
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154,702.82
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(3,722.82)
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2006 W
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13
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143,340
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139,362.57
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3,146.21
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1.03
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145,291.38
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(1,951.38)
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1988 S
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14
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153,360
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142,190.68
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2,987.16
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1.08
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154,509.63
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(1,149.63)
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1988 S
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15
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169,730
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144,939.30
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2,867.89
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1.17
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170,664.76
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(934.76)
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1988 F
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16
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161,990
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147,249.54
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2,589.07
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1.10
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164,053.12
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(2,063.12)
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2007 W
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17
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154,760
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149,940.86
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2,640.19
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1.03
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154,408.75
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351.25
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1988 S
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18
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164,780
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152,592.38
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2,645.85
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1.08
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164,739.26
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40.74
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1988 S
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19
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186,730
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156,466.79
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3,260.13
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1.19
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181,930.65
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4,799.35
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1988 F
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20
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177,880
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160,230.59
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3,511.97
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1.11
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176,029.75
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1,850.25
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2008 W
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21
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170,360
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164,152.06
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3,716.72
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1.04
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168,951.59
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1,408.41
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1988 S
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22
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178,830
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167,190.82
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3,377.74
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1.07
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181,270.26
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(2,440.26)
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1988 S
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23
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195,550
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168,732.72
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2,459.82
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1.16
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202,826.81
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(7,276.81)
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1988 F
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24
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187,220
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170,501.72
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2,114.41
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1.10
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189,772.64
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(2,552.64)
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2009 W
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25
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163,230
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168,070.53
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(158.39)
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0.98
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178,936.82
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(15,706.82)
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1988 S
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26
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162,890
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163,137.87
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(2,545.53)
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1.01
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179,944.64
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(17,054.64)
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1988 S
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27
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174,540
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157,361.67
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(4,160.86)
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1.12
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187,085.45
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(12,545.45)
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1988 F
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28
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163,130
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151,724.53
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(4,899.00)
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1.08
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168,543.79
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(5,413.79)
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2010 W
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29
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144,517.86
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1988 S
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30
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143,788.09
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1988 S
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31
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153,515.48
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1988 F
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32
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142,720.95
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MSE =
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175,943,211
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1) Refer to the inventory output for Betsy's Blue Bonnet Bakery. Here, Betsy is trying to determine the optimal order policy for birthday kits. What is the safety stock?
2) What is Betsy's service level if she uses this policy?
3) If Betsy changes to a lost sales model, how would the policy be affected?
4) Refer to the forecasting output for Betsy's. This model is appropriate for the type of data.
a. True
b. False