Assignment
Using annual data on GDP from the U.S. Census Bureau answer questions 1-6.
1.The trend analysis reveals
A) no evidence of any clear trend either upward or downward.
B) an upward trend.
C) an downward trend.
D) a positive but insignificant coefficient for the trend variable.
2.According to the F-statistic we cannot reject the null hypothesis that R2 = 0 when using trend analysis.
A) True
B) False
3.When conducting a 3-period moving average for GDP through 2007 the out of sample Mean Absolute Error (MAE) is found to be approximately
A) $682
B) $696
C) $1,043
D) none of the above
4.The moving average analysis shows forecasts that consistently underestimate actual GDP.
A) True
B) False
5.When using an exponential smoothing model for α = 0.3, the out of sample MAPE is _________ and the within sample MAPE is _________.
A) 21.85%, 11.45%
B) 20.62%, 8.35%
C) 27.83%, 16.29%
D) none of the above
6.The exponential smoothing forecast is more accurate at α = 0.7 than at α = 0.3.
A) True B) False
Complete the Forecasting for Tracway for mowers and answer questions 7-12.
7.Using the 3 month moving average for industry sales, which region is found to have the smallest MAE?
A) North America
B) South America
C) Europe
D) Pacific
8.Using Winter's method for industry sales, which region is found to have the smallest RMSE?
A) North America
B) South America
C) Europe
D) Pacific
9.The MAPE reveals that the average forecast misses the target by 3.00% using Winter's method in South America for industry sales.
A) True
B) False
10.Which statement most accurately reflects the meaning of the optimal smoothing constants found for industry sales in South America and Europe?
A) The model misses the target by 1.00% using Winter's method.
B) The model reacts slowly to changes in level, but quickly to trend and season for Winter's method.
C) The model reacts right away to changes in level, but almost never reacts to trend for Winter's method.
D) none of the above
11.Market share forecast errors are all smaller in comparison to sales which makes sense because one would not expect any region to have significant gains or losses in market share over the course of the 12 months forecasted in the models.
A) True B) False
12.The regional sectors forecast for industry sales and market share are better using Winter's method which can be seen by the results for MAE and MAPE.
A) True
B) False