Assignment

Chapter 9: East Asia
Can China Feed Itself?

Can China Feed Itself? (Chapter 9)

In this unit we consider the question of China's food security. China has a rapidly expanding population, which, by 2012, had reached 1.35 billion. One fifth of the world's population lives in China, and yet China has only 7 percent of the world's arable land resources. Some people feel that as its population grows, and as its economy becomes stronger, China will increasingly turn to the world grain market to meet its food needs. This prospect has alarmed Lester Brown, president of the Worldwatch Institute, who wrote a book in 1995 entitled Who Will Feed China? In this book, Brown argued that China's modernization would involve the sacrifice of its arable land resources to industrial and urban uses (such as building roads, housing, factories, and other non-agricultural conversions). China's resulting reliance on the world market, Brown argued, would severely destabilize the world's food security, since China would become such a massive buyer of grain.

See several synopses of Brown's argument at the following sites:

• China's Import Needs Driving Up World Gain Prices
• Who Will Feed China? Wake-Up Call for a Small Planet

Questions:

1. What are the key components of Brown's argument?

2. Why does he believe China's food production will not be able to keep pace with its growing population?

3. Why would China's buying food on the international market be a problem, according to Brown?

Brown's "Wake-Up Call" struck a nerve both within China and among international politicians and food security experts. While many disputed the accuracy of his findings, China itself took the position that it would-through technological improvements in its agricultural sector-be able to meet its own food security needs without relying heavily on the international market, as Brown claimed. See China's "White Paper" on "The Grain Issue in China" here.

Meanwhile, the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, a research institute based in Austria, decided to look into the question. The result was a comprehensive on-line resource addressing the multiple dimensions of China's food security.

View the IIASA site, Can China Feed Itself?: View the abstract at the IIASA site here, Can China Feed Itself?

A summary and discussion of both sides of the arguments is the paper by Shenggen Fan and MarceditaAgcaoili-Sombilla (you must have Acrobat reader to view this report).

This is a very comprehensive resource that compares the conclusions of Brown and other scholars and organizations. After spending some time exploring the site, answer the following questions:

4. According to this report, can China feed itself?

5. What has to happen in order to ensure that China continues to feed itself?

6. Do you think there is any reason to worry about the possibility of China purchasing more food on the international market?

7. How do you think a grain farmer in Kansas or Iowa would feel about the potential of China buying more food on the international market?

8. Do you think China should try to and be self-sufficient in grain, despite the environmental costs such a strategy might entail? Or should China become more dependent on the international market? What are the advantages and drawbacks of each of these options for China? What are the advantages or drawbacks for the rest of the world?