Assignment: Intuition and Analysis
Many people may believe that intuition is a vital tool in one's management repertoire. However, in order to fully leverage that tool one must first understand how it is honed and identify wherein weaknesses lie.
Review the article "When to TRUST your GUT" by A. M. Hayashi (2001) from this module's assigned readings.
Consider that Hayashi may, in fact, say that you should never purely "trust your gut." Yet, you rapidly make decisions everyday based on your accumulated experience and wisdom without relying on statistical analysis or net present value (NPV)-for example, the choice of whom to marry.
Keeping in mind Hayashi's thoughts as well as what you have learned about predilection for bias, respond to the following:
Describe a situation (real or imagined) where intuition is the best decision-making technique for you to use. Why is intuition better than a purely analytical approach in this situation?
Write your initial response in approximately 350 words. Apply APA standards to citation of sources.
Consider the following in your comments:
Was their analysis thorough?
Was their intuition well adapted to the decision at hand based on what you know of their experiences?
Was there a pattern or was something else at work? Did they adjust?
Was the timing of the decision right?
How did they respond to the need for promptness and the risks/rewards involved? Did they fall prey to the gambler's fallacy?
Was intuition able to incorporate future uncertainties? If not, how might that have been achieved?
How well thought out was their framing and were the "right" questions asked?
Did they make good decisions or did they simply have good outcomes?