Assignment- Business Analysis

Forecast Modeling Exercise-Seasonal Index

The All You Can Eat Ice Cream Store believes there is seasonality to their sales. Below is their sales for the last 4 years measured in quarters. From the history, determine the sales projections for year 5.

Quarter               Sales
1            1            2100
              2            610
             3            1050
             4            1125
2            1            2850
             2            790
             3            1350
             4            1440
3            1            3600
             2            1000
             3            1675
             4            1750
4            1            4375
             2            1195
             3            2000
             4            2100

Answer the Questions below: (show your work in EXCEL)

1) Determine the Seasonality Index by Quarter

2) Project what the forecast number would have been for prior years and determine the accuracy of that forecast (BIAS, Absolute, Absolute %, Standard Error)

3) Project the forecast numbers for year 5

4) Does Sales appear to have a seasonality trend?