Assignment -

1. Describe why simulation is important in decision analysis.

2. Consider the decision tree that represents patients and outcomes of Dr. Smith (see Benchmarking assignment). Using Monte Carlo method, create a histogram of expected lengths of stay if all the probabilities in the tree may change within 10%. Use at least 100 trials to calculate the values. Make sure that all probabilities are calculated correctly using relative cells. Attach excel file with the solution.

3. In what situations discrete event simulation is useful?

4. Consider the following situation: A radiology department is experiencing unexpectedly long processing times. It is not clear what is a real reason for this. As an analyst, you are asked to create a model to analyze bottlenecks, as well as test different scenarios on how to improve the situation. Describe how you'd approach the problem, what types of methods use, how to construct model, how to test different scenarios, and how to interpret results. Note that you are not supposed to create actual model, only describe process of creating it.