An urn contains b black balls and r red balls. One of the balls is drawn at random, but when it is put back in the urn c additional balls of the same color are put in with it. Now suppose that we draw another ball. Show that the probability that the ?rst ball drawn was black given that the second ball drawn was red is b/(b + r + c).

Sixty percent of the families in a certain community own their own car, thirty percent own their own home, and twenty percent own both their own car and their own home. If a family is randomly chosen, what is the probability that this family owns a car or a house but not both?