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A toy company buys large quantities of plastic pellets for use in the manufacture of its products. Production manager Josh Kang wants to develop a forecasting system for plastic pellet prices. The price per pound of plastic pellets has varied shown: Month Plastic Pellets Price/ Pound Month Plastic Pellets Price/ Pound 1 $ 0.39 9 0.35 2 0.41 10 0.38 3 0.45 11 0.39 4 0.44 12 0.43 5 0.40 13 0.37 6 0.41 14 0.38 7 0.38 15 0.36 8 0.36 16 0.39 A) Use exponential smoothing to forecast monthly plastic pellet prices. Compute what the forecasts would have been for all the months of historical data for α=0.1, α=0.3, and α=0.5 if assumed forecast for all α’s in the first month is $0.39. B) Which alpha value results in the last mean absolute deviation for Months 7-16? C) Use the best alpha value from part b to compute the forecasted plastic pellets price for month 17. Answer a, b, and c

Operation Management, Management Studies

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