A thorough investment analysis begins with a top-down approach. A good understanding of the economy - where we've been, where we are, and where we may be going - is critical to successful long-term investing.

In this project, you will analyze what you believe to be the five (5) most important economic variables based upon what we studied in class. You are not limited to those discussed in class, but if you choose any other variables you'll need to explain thoroughly why they are (more) important.

Assignment:

First, select the five economic variables you will use and list them in the order in which you will discuss them. Putthem in the order of what you believe to be their importance for your outlook. (5 points)

Second, discuss the meaning of each variable. Chart and interpret its history, provide a rationale for its importance, andrationalize your ranking order. (35 points)

Third, using all of the variables you have chosen, put together an analysis of where in the cycle you think the economy is today. Be sure to discuss the history of the variables and how that affected your analysis. (45 points)

Fourth, based on your analysis of where we've been and where we are, and using the same variables, discuss what you think will happen in the economy over the next 12 to 24 months. (15 points)

General Instructions:

Be sure to use graphs and data to support your arguments. You can find the data and charts you need using Quadrant.io, FRED and other sources. Usethe most recent data points possible.Use as much history as you believe necessary to make your points. Besure to endnote from where you obtained your information.

This assignment should not exceed 8 pages excluding graphs and data. If you want, you can put the charts and data in an appendix in the back. So to clarify, you may have up to 8 pages of prose, plusadditional pages for charts and data.

Additional Instructions:

Answer each of the foursectionsthoroughly. Use complete sentences and paragraphs. Please endnote any source you use to justify your answers (including class notes and the textbook). Feel free to bring in other sources to support your answers (just be sure to endnote those sources).

You must turn in a printed copy in class the day the project is due. You must also email a copy of your project to [email protected] to the beginning of class the day the project is due.

Use ARIAL type font, 12 point, double-spaced.

All guidelines regarding exams, projects, and assignments contained in the syllabus apply to this Project