A local government has issued a contract to design an upgrade to an existing IT system. Based on the results of a preliminary design review, the program manager believes that a critical driver of success of the upgrade is a new, untested technology that the company is proposing to use in the new system. Based on engineering analyses, the program manager believes:
• There is an 85% chance that the new technology will be deployed successfully in the new system without impacting cost, schedule, and performance, a 12% chance of a moderate impact, and an 3% chance of a severe impact.
• If there is no impact, the program manager forecasts a 70% chance of no cost overrun, a 20% chance of up to a $100,000 cost overrun and a 10% chance of an overrun greater than $100,000. A moderate impact means 50% chance of no overrun, a 40% chance of up to a $100,000 overrun, and a 10% chance of overrun greater than $100,000. A severe impact means a 20% chance of no overrun, a 40% chance of up to a $100,000 overrun, and a 40% chance of greater than $100,000 overrun.
• If there is no impact, the program manager forecasts an 80% chance of on-time delivery, a 19% chance of up to a 6-month delay and a 1% chance of a delay greater than six months. A moderate impact means 60% chance of on-time delivery, a 30% chance of up to a 6-month delay, and a 10% chance of delay greater than six months. A severe impact means a 20% chance of on-time delivery, a 50% chance of up to a 6-month delay, and a 30% chance of delay greater than six months.
• If there is no impact, the program manager forecasts a 40% chance of excellent performance, a 55% chance of acceptable performance and a 5% chance of unacceptable performance. A moderate impact means 20% chance of excellent performance, a 60% chance of acceptable performance, and a 20% chance of unacceptable performance. A severe impact means a 5% chance of excellent performance, a 65% chance of acceptable performance, and a 30% chance of unacceptable performance.
Construct a Bayesian network to model this problem.