a. If we forecast $100,000 sales for July, we actually sold $200,000 in July, and we want an exponential smoothing forecasting function with the highest noise dampening among @=0.1, @=0.3, @=0.5; if you can, forecast August sales. If you cannot, state what additional information is needed.
b. The quarterly sales for a specific educational software package, over the past three years, is as follows: Compute the seasonal indexes. Year 1 Year 2 Year 3
(Quarter 1 1690 1800 1850
Quarter 2 940 900 1100
Quarter 3 2625 2900 2930
Quarter 4 2500 2360 2615
c. The trend portion of quarterly sales, in 1000s, for AFore cellphone company is summarized by TR = -0.20 + 1.4t . Sales also exhibit seasonal variations. The seasonal indices are 1.1, 0.6, 1.0, 1.3 for the first, second, third, and fourth quarters respectively. Assume that the cyclical and random factors have no influence on the forecast. If t = 1 at the first quarter of 2011, how many thousand cellphones should the company expect to sell during the 2nd and 4th quarters of 2013?
(1) Use the full Decomposition Method.
(2) Use only the Trend Projection Method
(3) How many cellphones does the seasonal factor contribute in each of those two quarters?
2. There are 5 cars which must be serviced at the NEWT's automobile service center. NEWT's does Body Work, Oil Changes, and Tune-ups. The shop is organized so that Body Work is always done before changing the oil (if needed), and Oil Change is done prior to any Tune-up (if needed). The cars are to be serviced as follows:
Operation
Car I.D. Service Time(hours) DUE DATE Arrival
Body Oil- Tune (hours) Order
Work Change -Up
A ------ 0 2 3 -----------8 --------- 3rd
B ------ 4 0 2 -----------12 -------- 1st
C ------ 2 2 0 -----------5 -------- 4th
D ------ 0 4 2 -----------8 -------- 2nd
E ------ 3 3 0 -----------13 -------- 5th
If multiple cars are waiting to be served at the same operation, at any point in time, the manager wants to use FCFS (first-come-first-served) to determine which car has processing priority at that particular operation. Process these jobs (8 points) and determine: (a)The average length of time that a car remains at NEWT's? (b)The total time each car must spend waiting for service? (c)On average, how many cars you would expect to find at NEWT's, at any point in time, while the center is operating; assume that, upon completion, each car immediately leaves the service center. (d)On average, how late is a car delivered to its owner.
3. Immediate Task Time Immediate Task Time
Task Predecessor(s) (minutes) Task Predecessor(s) (minutes)
A - 1.0 F C 1.0
B A 1.0 G D,E,F 1.0
C A 2.0 H B 2.0
D C 1.0 I G,H 1.0
E C 3.0
Balance the Line and determine its: (a) Cycle Time; (b) Output; (c) Efficiency; (d) Total Idle Time, in hours, for the week.