(a) Give a full definition of the concept of simulation.

(b) Set out the general simulation methodology in ten steps using a flow diagram.

At a bakery, the daily demand for bread (in loaves) has the following probability distribution:

Demand (loaves)                                                                 Probability

1 000                                                                                    0,10

2 000                                                                                    0,30

3 000                                                                                    0,45

4 000                                                                                    0,15

(c) What is the expected daily demand for bread at the bakery?

(d) In a simulation run, the daily demand for bread is generated from the probability distribution by sequentially using the uniformly distributed random numbers U1, U2, : : :, as given in Appendix A.

(i) What is the demand for bread on the first day of the simulation run?

(ii) What is the average demand for bread over the first four days of the simulation run?

(iii) Draw a flow diagram of the logic to calculate the average daily demand for bread over the duration of a year (365 days). (Define any variables that you use clearly)