1. The Temple football team is playing the UNC-Charlotte 49ers on Friday
October 2, 2015. ESPN estimates that Temple has a 90.9% chance of winning the game. College football games cannot end in a tie.
a. What is the random variable associated with this game? [1 point]
b. What is the mutually exclusive event in this case? [1 point]
c. Construct a well-labeled probability distribution table based on the outcomes of this game. [2 points]
2. After UNC-Charlotte, Temple will play 8 more football games in the regular season. Those games (and their win probabilities) are listed in the following table:
| Date |
Game |
Win Probability |
| 2-Oct |
UNC- Charlotte Tulane |
90.90% |
| 10-Oct |
Tulane |
95.00% |
| 17-Oct |
UCF |
84.80% |
| 22-Oct |
East Carolina |
70.80% |
| 31-Oct |
Notre Dame |
17.30% |
| 6-Nov |
SMU |
84.80% |
| 14-Nov |
South Florida |
71.80% |
| 21-Nov |
Memphis |
58.80% |
| 28-Nov |
Connecticut |
93.70% |
a. What is the probability that Temple wins ALL the remaining games in the regular season (all the ones listed in the above table)?
b. Consider only the games in November. What is the probability that Temple loses ONLY ONE of the November games? Be sure to show your work.
3. These win probabilities are based on ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI). This index involves a complex formula, the details of which are not publicly available. See the Topic 4 article ESPN's Football Power Index for a 2015 interview with Brian Burke, Zach Bradshaw, and Alok Pattani, three members of the analytics team who developed the FPI.
Is ESPN's win probability estimate an a priori probability or a statistical probability? Justify your answer.