1. The monthly sales for Telco Batteries Inc., were as follows:
Month Sales
1 20
2 21
3 15
4 14
5 13
6 16
7 17
8 18
9 20
10 20
11 21
12 23
a) Compute a five and seven month moving average for months 8 thru 12.
b) Determine which of these forecasts are more accurate using the MSE.
2. The actual demand for the patients at Omaha Emergency Medical Clinic for the first six weeks of this year follows:
Week Actual # of Patients Forecast
1 65
2 62
3 70
4 68
5 63
6 58
a) Compute a simple exponential smoothing forecast for week 7 with α = .2 (Use 2 decimal places only). Assume the initial forecast is the same as actual demand.
3. The general manager of a building materials production plant feels that the demand for plasterboard shipments may be related to the number of construction permits issued in the county during the previous quarter. The manager has collected the data shown below for the past two years.
| |
Permits (000's) |
(10,000's) |
| 1 |
15 |
6 |
| 2 |
9 |
4 |
| 3 |
40 |
16 |
| 4 |
20 |
6 |
| 1 |
25 |
13 |
| 2 |
25 |
9 |
| 3 |
15 |
10 |
| 4 |
35 |
16 |
a) Compute the regression equation.
b) Interpretation of a and b in the context of this problem.
4. The moving-average forecast and actual demand for a hospital drug are shown in the accompanying table. Compute a tracking signal at the end of month 32, and comment on the forecast accuracy.
|
Month
|
Actual
|
Forecast
|
|
|
Demand
|
Demand
|
|
27
|
71
|
78
|
|
28
|
80
|
75
|
|
29
|
101
|
83
|
|
30
|
84
|
84
|
|
31
|
60
|
88
|
|
32
|
73
|
85
|