1) Why is it important that forecasters and users of forecasts be separated? (That is, why should the users not be the ones to create the forecast?)
2) Which of the following conditions is NOT required to apply a quantitative forecasting method?
A) Numerical information about the past is available.
B) It is reasonable to assume that some aspects of past patterns will continue into the future.
c) A computer capable of doing complex statistical calculations is available.
d) None of the above (that is, they are all required conditions).
3) In which of the following situations are qualitative forecasts useful?
a) When numerical information about the past is unavailable.
b) When there is information available that cannot be incorporated into a statistical model.
c) When a consensus opinion of several proven experts is available.
d) All of the above.
Select all of the classifications that apply to the forecasting situation described:
4) Forecasting automobile fatalities using a linear regression model based on number of vehicle miles driven, age of vehicles, and existence of safety legislation.
a) Qualitative
b) Quantitative
c) Data-driven
d) Model-based
Select all of the classifications that apply to the forecasting situation described:
5) Forecasting real GDP using an exponential smoothing model of quarterly US real gross domestic product.
a) Qualitative
b) Quantitative
c) Data-driven
d) Model-based
Select all of the classifications that apply to the forecasting situation described:
6) Forecasting monthly product sales with a 4-period moving average model.
a) Qualitative
b) Quantitative
c) Data-driven
d) Model-based
Select all of the classifications that apply to the forecasting situation described:
7) Forecasting the likelihood of the collapse of the EMU using the Delphi method with 5 international financial experts.
a) Qualitative
b) Quantitative
c) Data-driven
d) Model-based
8) The Delphi method, developed by the RAND Corporation
a) Relies on aggregation, that is, the idea that a forecast by a group is more accurate than a forecast by an individual.
b) Is an iterative process where forecasts are made, feedback is provided, and then the forecasts are revised, multiple times.
c) Utilizes a group of experts who are not known to each other.
d) All of the above.
9) When should we consider applying a judgmental adjustment to a statistical forecast?
a) To make users feel that they have contributed to the forecasts by giving them a say in the final forecast.
b) To correct for systematic pattern in the data that the forecaster sees but is not accounted for in the statistical model.
c) When significant new information becomes available that was not incorporated in the historical data used to generate the forecast.
d) To make a forecast appear more optimistic.