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1. Prepare a graph of the data. On this same graph, plot a12-month moving average forecast. Discuss any apparent trend and seasonal patterns.

2. Use regression to develop a trend line that could be used to forecast monthly sales for the next year. Is the slope of this line consistent with what you observed in question 1? If not, discuss a possible explanation.

3. Use the multiplicative decomposition model on these data. Use this model to forecast sales for each month of the next year. Discuss why the slope of the trend equation with this model is so different from that of the trend equation in question 2.

Monthly Revenue (in $1,000s)

MONTH         2008   2009    2010

January         438     444     450

February       420     425     438

March            414     423     434

April              318      331    338

May               306      318    331

June             240      245    254

July              240      255    264

August         216      223    231

September 198      210     224

October       225     233     243

November   270     278      289

December   315     322      335

Operation Management, Management Studies

  • Category:- Operation Management
  • Reference No.:- M91701230

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