1) Given the following sales predict the next four quarters of demand (9 through 12) using one of the decomposition methods.
|
Quarter
|
Sales
|
Quarter
|
Sales
|
Quarter
|
Forecast
|
|
1
|
260
|
5
|
315
|
9
|
|
|
2
|
295
|
6
|
340
|
10
|
|
|
3
|
250
|
7
|
305
|
11
|
|
|
4
|
240
|
8
|
290
|
12
|
|
The following is the usage of flour at the bakery.
|
Week
|
Pounds of Flour
|
Week
|
Pounds of Flour
|
|
1
|
250
|
5
|
380
|
|
2
|
300
|
6
|
385
|
|
3
|
320
|
7
|
395
|
|
4
|
325
|
8
|
405
|
2) Use a 4 week moving average to predict weeks 5 through 8.
3) Use exponential smoothing with ?=0.2 and the estimated forecast for week 4 of 290 to forecast weeks 5 through 8.
4) Using MAD which method would have been better at forecasting the demand? What is the MAD of each?
5) A retail store is determining how many swimsuits to buy for the season. Once the season is over, all unbought swimsuits will be donated. The demand is estimated to be 6000 with a standard deviation of 200. The swimsuits cost $65 to purchase and sell for $78. How many should they order to maximize profits?
6) A bank likes to give pens to their customers, but seems to be running out of pens often. They would like to establish a fixed order model so they can achieve a 99% non-stock-out rate. The lead time for pens is one week. Average daily demand is 5 pens with a standard deviation of 18 over a one week period. The yearly demand is 1500 pens. The pens cost $1 each, holding costs are $0.02 per pen and order costs are $10. At what stock level should they reorder and how many should they order? What will be the total cost of the Q-model?
7) The bank has decided to order pens once a month. If there are 50 pens in stock at the time of the order, how many pens will be ordered? What is the estimated total cost for the P-model?