1. Assume you are forecasting with an exponential smoothing model using a 5 0.6. How much weight is placed on the most recent actual demand? How much weight is given to the demand one time period older than the most recent data? How much weight is given to data from two periods in the past?
2. Given the series of demand data below
|
Period:
|
1
|
2
|
3
|
4
|
5
|
6
|
7
|
8
|
9
|
10
|
|
Demand:
|
40
|
33
|
56
|
43
|
23
|
45
|
38
|
40
|
29
|
40
|
a. Calculate the forecasts for periods 7 through 11 using moving average models with n 5 2, n 5 4, and n 5 6.
b. Calculate the bias and MAD for each set of forecasts. Which moving average model is best?