1. When Haley's Comet hovered over Jerusalem in 66 CE, the historian Josephus prophesied it meant the destruction of the city. Jerusalem fell four years later during a failed uprising against Roman Occupiers, thus confirming the power of the comet. Is this argument subject to any causal fallacies (post hoc ergo propter hoc, cum hoc ergo propter hoc, confusing effect with cause, or ignoring an underlying cause)? Explain your answer.

2. For the last 10 years, unemployment has increased in January and retail sales have gone down in February. Clearly, the decrease in retail sales is caused by the increased in unemployment. Is this argument subject to any of the following causal fallacies: post hoc ergo propter hoc, reverse causation, ignoring and underlying cause? Explain your answer.

3. Determine whether the following statement is an example of Method of Difference Reasoning or Method of Agreement Reasoning (and briefly explain your answer). Fundraising director for a public radio station: "I know that our music director hates it when we play classical music. But go back and look at our most successful fund drivers: every big day has been a day heavily loaded with classical music."