Your Group notes that HMK has just paid an annual dividend of $1.50. Analysts are predicting the dividend to grow by $0.12 per year over the next five years. After then, HMK’s earnings are expected to grow by 6% per year, and its dividend payout rate will remain constant. If HMK’s cost of capital (which is what we are eventually seeking for the overall weighted average cost of capital) is assumed to be 8.5% by your Group, what price will you tell Mr. Moneypockets that HMK stock should be selling for today, using the dividend-discount model as your technique?
b. alternatively, your Group expects free cash flows to be generated over the next five years as follows for HMK:
Year 1 2 3 4 5
FCF ($M) 53 68 78 75 82
After then, your Group expects the free cash flows to grow at the industry average of 6% per year (same rate as the growth in dividends after the first five years, per above).
If you now switch to the discounted free cash flow model as an alternative, and use the same estimate of 8.5% as the equity cost of capital:
--what will you tell Mr. Moneypockets that his “enterprise value” will be for HMK?
--if HMK has no excess cash that can be used for this investment, but already has $300M of debt (none of which includes Option I debt financing above), and 40M shares outstanding of common stock, what will be your estimate of the stock price to Mr. Moneypockets?
c. what conclusions can your Group give Mr. Moneypockets relative to the differing stock price estimates that might result from these two approaches to stock price estimation? What could account for the differences in the two stock price approaches?
d. If the price of the stock is roughly $62 when issued (and assuming no flotation costs such as paid to an Investment Banker), how many shares of new stock will have to be issued in the primary market to major investors such as CalPERS (California Pension Fund System) and the AFL-CIO Pension Fund, in order to raise the $10M?