For this question set, Southwest is considering hiring a consulting team to predict the future economic conditions. This consulting team offers a research package that costs $2 million. The team will predict a strong economy 20% of the time; in that case, the actual probability of a strong economy is 70% and the probabilities of each of the other three states are 10%. The other 80% of the time, the actual probability of a strong economy is 1%, a good economy is 41%, an average economy is 35%, and a weak economy is 23%.
When constructing your decision tree, you can reuse the EMV for the outcome after the decision to not hire the consulting team.