Question 1
A ________ is a gradual, long-term, up-or-down movement of demand.
Answer
seasonal pattern
cycle
trend
prediction
Question 2
A ________ is an up-and-down repetitive movement that repeats itself over a time span of more than 1 year.
Answer
prediction
seasonal pattern
trend
cyclical pattern
Question 3
A rendering plant wishes to use the data (sales records from a few local businesses and the month of the year) to help determine their supply level for the coming months. The records shown in the table provide an excellent opportunity for you to assist them with their forecasting.
What is a three-period moving average forecast for the month of July?
Answer
47.33
46.10
45.38
44.29
Question 4
A rendering plant wishes to use the data (sales records from a few local businesses and the month of the year) to help determine their supply level for the coming months. The records shown in the table provide an excellent opportunity for you to assist them with their forecasting.
What is the three-period weighted moving average for July using the weights 0.5 (most recent), 0.3, and 0.2?
Answer
48.99
45.6
49.51
46.09
Question 5
A rendering plant wishes to use the data (sales records from a few local businesses and the month of the year) to help determine their supply level for the coming months. The records shown in the table provide an excellent opportunity for you to assist them with their forecasting.
Using 1 to represent January, 2 to represent February, and so on, what is the intercept for the regression equation that predicts the pounds of supplies available?
Answer
0.55
-2.74
59.55
8.87
Question 6
A rendering plant wishes to use the data (sales records from a few local businesses and the month of the year) to help determine their supply level for the coming months. The records shown in the table provide an excellent opportunity for you to assist them with their forecasting.
What is the forecast for July if exponential smoothing with an alpha=.04 generated a forecast of 43.0 for June?
Answer
41.25
40.64
43.16
42.88
Question 7
A rendering plant wishes to use the data (sales records from a few local businesses and the month of the year) to help determine their supply level for the coming months. The records shown in the table provide an excellent opportunity for you to assist them with their forecasting.
What is the slope of the regression equation developed when the Sales data are used to predict the Pounds?
Answer
0.92
0.86
0.80
0.71
Question 8
Consider the following demand and forecast.
If MAD = 2 for the four periods under consideration, what is the forecast for period 4?
Answer
19
20
21
22
Question 9
Consider the following graph of sales.
Which of the following characteristics is exhibited by the data?
Answer
trend only
trend plus seasonal
trend plus random
None of these
Question 10
Consider the following graph of sales.
Which of the following characteristics is exhibited by the data?
Answer
trend only
trend plus seasonal
trend plus random
seasonal only
Question 11
Consider the following graph of sales.
Which of the following characteristics is exhibited by the data?
Answer
trend only
trend plus seasonal
trend plus irregular
seasonal
Question 12
Given forecast errors of 6, 4, 0 and -2, what is the mean absolute deviation?
Answer
2
3
4
2.67
None of these
Question 13
Given the following data on the number of pints of ice cream sold at a local ice cream store for a 6-period time frame:
Use a 3-period moving average to forecast demand for period 7.
Answer
283.33
280
290
310
Question 14
Given the following data on the number of pints of ice cream sold at a local ice cream store for a 6-period time frame:
If the forecast for period 5 is equal to 275, use exponential smoothing to compute a forecast for period 7 if = .40.
Answer
273
277
267.8
286.2
Question 15
In adjusted exponential smoothing, the closer beta is to ________, the stronger a trend is reflected.
Answer
-1 or 1
-1
0
1
Question 16
In exponential smoothing, the closer alpha is to ________, the greater the reaction to the most recent demand.
Answer
-1
0
1
-1 or 1
Question 17
1.
The following data represents quarterly sales of lawnmowers.
What is the seasonal factor for the third quarter? (Round to the nearest hundredth.)
Answer
.20
.22
.26
.30
Question 18
The manager of "Skis 4 U" is preparing a forecast for January of 2013. Demand exhibits both trend and seasonality. The trend equation for monthly demand is?y?= 4375 + 80t, where?t?= 1 for January 2012. The seasonal index for January is 1.25. The forecast for January 2013 is:
Answer
4575
4583
5668
6769
Question 19
Which of the following possible values of alpha would cause exponential smoothing to respond the most slowly to sudden changes in forecast errors?
Answer
.01
.50
.90
3.14
Question 20
________ are good for stable demand with no pronounced behavioral patterns.
Answer
Longer-period moving averages
Shorter-period moving averages
Moving averages
Weighted moving averages
Question 21
________ has become increasingly crucial to compete in the modern international business environment.
Answer
The Delphi method
Technological forecasting
Prediction
Exponential smoothing
Question 22
________ is a category of statistical techniques that uses historical data to predict future behavior.
Answer
Qualitative methods
Regression
Time series
Quantitative methods
Question 23
________ is a linear regression model relating demand to time.
Answer
Linear trend
Linear regression
Forecast demand
Linear equation
Question 24
________ is absolute error as a percentage of demand.
Answer
Cumulative error
MAD
MAPD
Average error
Question 25
________ is the difference between the forecast and actual demand.
Answer
Forecast mistake
Forecast error
MAD
Forecast accuracy
Question 26
________ is the percentage of the variation in the dependent variable that results from the independent variable.
Answer
Regression
Coefficient of determination
Correlation
Linear regression
Question 27
________ methods are the most common type of forecasting method for the long-term strategic planning process.
Answer
Regression
Qualitative
Time series
Queuing
Question 28
________ methods assume that what has occurred in the past will continue to occur in the future.
Answer
Time series
Regression
Quantitative
Qualitative
Question 29
________ moving averages react more slowly to recent demand changes than do ________ moving averages.
Answer
Longer-period, shorter-period
Shorter-period, longer-period
Longer-period, longer-period
Shorter-period, shorter-period
Question 30
________ use management judgment, expertise, and opinion to make forecasts.
Answer
Qualitative methods
Regression
Time series
Quantitative methods